It is absolutely amazing to me that the media and government keep talking about how well the economy is doing. But the latest jobs data this past Friday seemed to give even the cheerleaders a reason to drop their pompoms and take a deep breath. Adding only 38,000 jobs last month when we need 150,000 to address the growing population is startling. If that is not bad enough, some estimate that we would need 250,000 new jobs a month to recover what has been lost since the 2008 crash. But new job creation is only a part of the rogues gallery of economic indicators.
Below is a link to a collection of economic indicators that paint a very sobering picture indeed. Here is the summary of what you will find:
- The consumer price index is over double what it was in 1985
- The purchasing power of the dollar has steadily declined since 1940 (how crazy is it to pay more for bread than we did in 1950? Prices should go down and not up as manufacturing and farming gets more efficient).
- Interest rate have been driven by governments to essentially zero, in a crazed attempt to stimulate spending and stock market investment.
- Real (inflation adjusted) incomes are about the same as they were 30 years ago.
- The stock market is at an all time high, but with shaky fundamentals (such as high P/E ratios). See #3.
- Savings as a percentage of savings are at great depression levels.
- The rise in stock market since 2009 correlates almost exactly with the increase in base currency (money printing).
- Bond yields are declining.
- The stock market recovery since 2008-2009 is getting long in the tooth – now at 83 month versus a 61 month average.
- Production of consumer goods is still about 10% down from the pre 2008 (crash) level.
- Household debt is now about 14 trillion dollars and rising.
- Housing starts are less than have the pre 2008 (crash) level.
- Employment is shifting from producing goods to leisure and hospitality.
- Working age full time jobs are at about year 2000 levels.
- High school graduate (no college) employment is down 10% since the 2008 crash, while senior (65 and over) employment is up 10%
- Breadwinner jobs are at about year 2000 levels.
- Corporate debt is at all time high and ballooning (now over 6 trillion dollars)
- Student loan debt since 2008 has exploded to about 1 trillion dollars
- Mortgage debt is 6 times what it was in 1987
and, of course the one you know:
20. National debt is now over $19.2 trillion and the politicians have stopped talking about it (too hopeless?)
Till next time – Will
